The district has been witnessing temperature fluctuations during the daytime for the past week now. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the starting of summer this year will witness relatively cooler temperature. It is being forecasted that the temperature during the daytime will remain somewhat normal while temperature post 7:00 PM will drop below normal for March. However, heatwave conditions are expected towards the end of May due to the La Niña effect.
Weather experts blame La Niña for the foreseeable temperature change
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According to Dr. Ved Prakash Singh, a senior scientist at IMD, Bhopal, “there are currently La Niña conditions prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. The effect will possibly weaken during the spring season in the Northern Hemisphere and will reach the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions during the second quarter of the year.”
It has been noticed that the Current Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are neutral over the Indian Ocean, and the latest Monsoon Mission-Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS) indicates that neutral IOD conditions are likely to continue during the spring and summer seasons in the northern hemisphere.
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Due to the above conditions, the temperatures will remain at a comfortable low in the upcoming months. La Niña will remain neutral in the second half of the season, resulting in heatwave conditions in the Southern part of the state. Meanwhile, the Northern part will continue to witness stagnated temperature. However, Northern plains are expected to witness rainless thunderstorms in the months of April and May due to varying weather conditions.
How does La Nina and El Nino combine to be ENSO?
ENSO has an impregnable relationship with seasonal progression over the Indian subcontinent. The El Nino correlation is observed to be more robust than La Nina, both during the southwest monsoon and winter season. On the other hand, La Nina is getting colder than expected in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. It can be viewed as a big influencer of weather conditions during the fall of the year and it could keep responding adversely till early summers.
What is a heatwave condition?
As per WHO, heatwaves, or heat and hot weather that can last for several days, can have a significant impact on society, including a rise in heat-related deaths. Heatwaves are among the most dangerous of natural hazards, but rarely receive adequate attention because their death tolls and destruction are not always immediately obvious.
Heat wave is considered if maximum temperature of a region reaches at least 40°C or more for Plains and at least 30°C or more for Hilly regions. When maximum temperature departure is 4.50°C or more from normal, Heat Wave may be described provided actual maximum temperature is 370°C or more. The peak month of the heat wave over India is May.
