As per a modelling study conducted by the researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology-Kanpur, there is a possibility that a fourth COVID wave will be witnessed in the country by June 22. As per the findings of this study published in the preprint server MedRxiv, the fourth wave which is likely to last for four months will peak from mid to late August. Read on to know more about this latest research on coronavirus.

4th wave to peak on August 23

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This yet-to-be-peer-reviewed study was led by Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subhra Sankar Dhar, and Shalabh from theDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, IIT Kanpur. Using a statistical model to make the predictions, this study claims that the severity of the next wave will depend on two factors, the emergence of a new COVID variant and the country's overall vaccination status.

“The data indicates that the fourth wave of Covid-19 in India will arrive after 936 days from the initial data availability date, which is January 30, 2020,” the authors of the study said. “Therefore, the fourth wave starts from June 22, 2022, reaching its peak on August 23, 2022, and ends on October 24, 2022,” added the researchers.

Notably, this is the same team that had predicted the peak of the Omicron-led third wave of the pandemic in India by February 3, 2022. In the current study, the researchers have studied the country's COVID data to predict the beginning of the fourth wave. As per the researchers, “This methodology can also be used to forecast the fourth and other waves in other countries also."

While many countries have experienced three waves of the pandemic so far, countries like South Africa and Zimbabwe have already been hit by the fourth and higher waves of COVID now, stated the researchers. Talking about the accuracy of the study, the authors said, “The third wave of Covid-19 was predicted for India using the data of Zimbabwe, and when the third wave in India is finishing, it is now clear that the forecast was correct."

Next variant of COVID likely to be more contagious, says WHO

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According to the researchers, the new variant of coronavirus with its infectibility rate and fatality rate will be a deciding factor impacting this analysis. “Apart from this fact, the effect of vaccinations — first, second or booster dosage may also play a significant role on the possibility of infection, degree of infection and various issues related to the fourth wave,” added the authors.

Meanwhile, the officials at the World Health Organization has recently warned about the emergence of a new variant after Omicron, which is expected to be more contagious than this strain that triggered the third wave in the world. “The next variant of concern will be more fit, and what we mean by that is it will be more transmissible because it will have to overtake what is currently circulating,” said Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO’s Covid-19 technical lead.