India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued an orange alert for Mumbai, Thane and Raigad this weekend, warning of very heavy rain on Saturday and Sunday. A yellow alert is in place for Friday, while today remains free of warnings. The city has already exceeded its average September rainfall, with more downpours expected through the festive weekend.

Meteorologists have attributed the surge to a fresh depression likely to develop over the Bay of Bengal by September 27. The system, forming off the Andhra coast, may combine with remnants of Typhoon Ragasa, before moving westward towards Maharashtra. On reaching Madhya Maharashtra, it is expected to induce a vortex, adding intensity to the rainfall.

Such heavy spells are unusual in the final week of September, when Mumbai typically records only intermittent showers as the city approaches monsoon withdrawal. The official date for withdrawal is October 8, but observers suggest this year’s retreat could be delayed until mid-October.

Speaking of current stats, Mumbai’s average September rainfall is around 380 mm, but the city has already logged 429 mm this month. Cumulative rainfall since June stands at 2,923 mm at the Santacruz station and 1,960 mm at Colaba.