कोरोना की तीसरी लहर के बाद अब देश पर चौथी लहर का खतरा मंडरा रहा है। आईआईटी कानपुर के शोधकर्ताओं के अनुसार देश में कोरोना की चौथी लहर 22 जून के आसपास आ सकती है। सांख्यिकीय मॉडल (statistical model) के आधार पर किए गए इस अध्ययन के अनुसार यह लहर 4 महीने तक रहेगी। 15-31 अगस्त के बीच लहर अपने चरम पर पहुंच सकती है। यह अध्ययन मेडरिव (preprint server MedRxiv) में हाल में प्रकाशित हुआ है।
नए वैरिएंट पर निर्भर करेगी चौथी लहर की गंभीरता
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रिपोर्ट के अनुसार, आईआईटी कानपुर के गणित और सांख्यिकी विभाग के तीन शोधकर्ताओं- सुभ्र शंकर धर, सबरा प्रसाद राजेशभाई और शलभ द्वारा किया गया था। अध्ययन से पता चलता है कि चौथी लहर की गंभीरता कोरोना वायरस के नए संभावित स्वरूप और देश भर में टीकाकरण की स्थिति पर निर्भर करेगी।
शोधकर्ताओं ने बताया कि, “आंकड़े दिखाते हैं कि भारत में संक्रमण की चौथी लहर प्रारंभिक आंकड़े उपलब्धता तिथि के 936 दिन बाद आएगी, जो कि 30 जनवरी 2020 है। इसलिए चौथी लहर 22 जून 2022 से शुरू होगी, 23 अगस्त 2022 तक चरम पर पहुंचेगी और फिर 24 अक्टूबर 2022 तक समाप्त हो जाएगी।”
महामारी अभी खत्म नहीं हुई है: विश्व स्वास्थ्य संगठन
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डब्ल्यूएचओ के महामारीविद (epidemiologist) और कोविड -19 पर टेक्निकल लीड (technical lead) डॉ मारिया वान केरखोव ने भी चेतावनी दी है कि कोविड -19 का अगला वैरिएंट अधिक संक्रामक होगा, और शायद, अपने पूर्ववर्तियों (predecessors) की तुलना में अधिक घातक होगा क्योंकि इसे वर्तमान में फैलने वाले वैरिएंट से आगे निकलना होगा। डॉ. केरखोव ने इस बात पर ज़ोर दिया है कि महामारी अभी खत्म नहीं हुई है और भविष्य के वैरिएंट, किसी तरह से ओमिक्रॉन की तुलना में अधिक खतरनाक होंगे।
कई देश पहले ही तीसरी लहर का सामना चुके हैं और कुछ महामारी की चौथी और अधिक लहरों का सामना करना शुरू कर दिया है। ज़िम्बाब्वे के डेटा के आधार पर गाऊसी वितरण के मिश्रण (Gaussian distribution) की अवधारणा का उपयोग करके भारत में कोविड -19 की तीसरी लहर की भविष्यवाणी की गई थी। तीसरी लहर के लिए पूर्वानुमान लगभग सही था और अध्ययन से प्रेरित होकर शोधकर्ताओं ने भारत में चौथी लहर के पूर्वानुमान की जांच की है।