Is it too early to celebrate?
Friday evening would have brought a sigh of relief for health and district officials in Lucknow, as for the first time in September new cases count came down to just 425. With this, 853 people recovered from the deadly virus and the active cases count came down to 8,954. So the question rises- Is the curve bending in Lucknow? Is Lucknow going the herd immunity way? Or is it too early to celebrate?
The Big Picture: Consistent recoveries, increase in testing and a fall in active cases
Test, Test & Test was the mantra which WHO gave at the beginning of the pandemic back in March-April. The Uttar Pradesh government and district officials in Lucknow were focused in increasing the testing labs in the state and the city from the very beginning. Infact in Lucknow, more than 5.3 lakh people were tested for the novel Coronavirus till Friday. Increased in testing also increased the count of new cases reported everyday which went up to 1100 cases in a single day in September-mid but this also meant that new cases were being identified and isolated fast. This helped in bringing down the test positivity count and also helped in slowing the spread of the virus.
However, we now need to also focus a lot on putting a brake on case fatality ratio. Everyday, we Lucknowities are loosing our friends, family and colleagues to this deadly virus. On Friday, 9 more people succumbed to the novel Coronavirus.
Is Lucknow going the herd immunity way? or is it too early to celebrate!
Honestly, not even the arbitrators of herd immunity can say if a city or a country has achieved herd immunity. The lack of data can be a cause for this. Till August, we believed Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai will achieve herd immunity(almost) but the increase in daily positive cases being reported in these cities tell a different tale.
Recently a study published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, New York investigated the suppression and mitigation approaches for controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19. Achieving herd immunity to Covid-19 is an impractical public health strategy, said researchers, adding that, immunity is not perfect and achieving it through widespread exposure is very unlikely.
The results of Lucknow's first sero survey will be shared in the public domain soon. The sero survey report will help us in understanding the spread of Coronavirus in Lucknow. This report will also help us in understanding if Lucknow can go the herd immunity route or not.
No you are wrong to believe that you have recovered from Coronavirus because you had a few symptoms which disappeared after a few days. The right way would have been to get yourself examined and tested. It is truly a deadly virus, getting tested at the onset of symptoms will help you not only get yourself treated but will also help the authorities in controlling its spread. Be a responsible citizen mate! As for the bending of the curve, let's wait for a couple of more days to see if the drop in new cases was not just a one day phenomenon.