Mumbai, along with six other densely populated cities, finds itself in the potential impact zone of asteroid 2024 YR4, a “city-killer” space rock currently being tracked by NASA. Discovered on December 27, 2023, by Chile’s El Sauce Observatory, the asteroid has a 3.1% chance of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032. This marks the highest probability detected by modern forecasting systems, leading to intensified monitoring of the asteroid as one of the most closely watched near-Earth objects.
Measuring between 40 to 90 meters—comparable to New York’s Statue of Liberty—it could explode mid-air with a force 500 times that of the Hiroshima bomb if it enters Earth’s atmosphere.
The potential threat of Asteroid 2024 YR4
NASA says there’s now a 3.1% chance that asteroid 2024 YR4 will hit Earth in 2032
This is the highest risk assessment an asteroid has ever received pic.twitter.com/N8tLS7kNmR
— Latest in space (@latestinspace) February 18, 2025
The “city-killer” asteroid, estimated to be between 40 to 90 meters wide, has raised concerns, especially due to its potential threat to India’s densely populated urban cities. NASA’s projected impact zone includes the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia, placing densely populated countries like India, Nepal, and Bangladesh at a higher risk.
Indian cities including Mumbai and Kolkata, alongside Dhaka, Bogotá, Abidjan, Lagos and Khartoum, are vulnerable, as per reports. While the chance of impact remains low, astronomers will closely monitor its trajectory until April 2025, after which it will fade from view, only to become visible again in June 2028.
NASA’s past success offers hope—
This isn’t the first time a near-Earth object has sparked alarm. In 2022, NASA’s DART mission successfully demonstrated asteroid deflection, providing optimism for future planetary defence. While there’s no immediate cause for panic, Mumbai remains under observation as astronomers refine their calculations. Further data may rule out the impact risk, as has happened with many asteroids in the past.
