कोरोना की तीसरी लहर के बाद अब देश पर चौथी लहर का खतरा मंडरा रहा है। आईआईटी कानपुर के शोधकर्ताओं के अनुसार देश में कोरोना की चौथी लहर 22 जून के आसपास आ सकती है। सांख्यिकीय मॉडल (statistical model) के आधार पर किए गए इस अध्ययन के अनुसार यह लहर 4 महीने तक रहेगी। 15-31 अगस्त के बीच लहर अपने चरम पर पहुंच सकती है। यह अध्ययन मेडरिव (preprint server MedRxiv) में हाल में प्रकाशित हुआ है।
नए वैरिएंट पर निर्भर करेगी चौथी लहर की गंभीरता
[rebelmouse-image 29447190 is_animated_gif=false crop_info=”%7B%22image%22%3A%20%22https%3A//assets.rbl.ms/29447190/origin.jpg%22%2C%20%22thumbnails%22%3A%20%7B%22origin%22%3A%20%22https%3A//assets.rbl.ms/29447190/origin.jpg%22%2C%20%222000×1500%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE5MC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY3ODk1Mzg2Mn0.XH1tiHwvbrcCCpM1hzB8pgV09kIp7uYFeObPwQDsHaE/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D2000%26coordinates%3D99%252C0%252C100%252C0%26height%3D1500%22%2C%20%22600×200%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE5MC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY3ODk1Mzg2Mn0.XH1tiHwvbrcCCpM1hzB8pgV09kIp7uYFeObPwQDsHaE/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D600%26coordinates%3D0%252C94%252C0%252C94%26height%3D200%22%2C%20%2235×35%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE5MC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY3ODk1Mzg2Mn0.XH1tiHwvbrcCCpM1hzB8pgV09kIp7uYFeObPwQDsHaE/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D35%26height%3D35%22%2C%20%22600×600%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE5MC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY3ODk1Mzg2Mn0.XH1tiHwvbrcCCpM1hzB8pgV09kIp7uYFeObPwQDsHaE/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D600%26coordinates%3D176%252C0%252C176%252C0%26height%3D600%22%2C%20%22980x%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE5MC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY3ODk1Mzg2Mn0.XH1tiHwvbrcCCpM1hzB8pgV09kIp7uYFeObPwQDsHaE/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D980%22%2C%20%22700×1245%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE5MC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY3ODk1Mzg2Mn0.XH1tiHwvbrcCCpM1hzB8pgV09kIp7uYFeObPwQDsHaE/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D700%26coordinates%3D276%252C0%252C276%252C0%26height%3D1245%22%2C%20%221000×750%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE5MC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY3ODk1Mzg2Mn0.XH1tiHwvbrcCCpM1hzB8pgV09kIp7uYFeObPwQDsHaE/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D1000%26coordinates%3D99%252C0%252C100%252C0%26height%3D750%22%2C%20%221500×2000%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE5MC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY3ODk1Mzg2Mn0.XH1tiHwvbrcCCpM1hzB8pgV09kIp7uYFeObPwQDsHaE/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D1500%26coordinates%3D233%252C0%252C233%252C0%26height%3D2000%22%2C%20%22600x%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE5MC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY3ODk1Mzg2Mn0.XH1tiHwvbrcCCpM1hzB8pgV09kIp7uYFeObPwQDsHaE/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D600%22%2C%20%221200×400%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE5MC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY3ODk1Mzg2Mn0.XH1tiHwvbrcCCpM1hzB8pgV09kIp7uYFeObPwQDsHaE/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D1200%26coordinates%3D0%252C94%252C0%252C94%26height%3D400%22%2C%20%22600×400%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE5MC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY3ODk1Mzg2Mn0.XH1tiHwvbrcCCpM1hzB8pgV09kIp7uYFeObPwQDsHaE/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D600%26coordinates%3D61%252C0%252C62%252C0%26height%3D400%22%2C%20%221200×800%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE5MC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY3ODk1Mzg2Mn0.XH1tiHwvbrcCCpM1hzB8pgV09kIp7uYFeObPwQDsHaE/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D1200%26coordinates%3D61%252C0%252C62%252C0%26height%3D800%22%2C%20%22600×300%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE5MC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY3ODk1Mzg2Mn0.XH1tiHwvbrcCCpM1hzB8pgV09kIp7uYFeObPwQDsHaE/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D600%26coordinates%3D0%252C26%252C0%252C27%26height%3D300%22%2C%20%22210x%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE5MC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY3ODk1Mzg2Mn0.XH1tiHwvbrcCCpM1hzB8pgV09kIp7uYFeObPwQDsHaE/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D210%22%2C%20%22300×300%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE5MC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY3ODk1Mzg2Mn0.XH1tiHwvbrcCCpM1hzB8pgV09kIp7uYFeObPwQDsHaE/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D300%26coordinates%3D176%252C0%252C176%252C0%26height%3D300%22%2C%20%221245×700%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE5MC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY3ODk1Mzg2Mn0.XH1tiHwvbrcCCpM1hzB8pgV09kIp7uYFeObPwQDsHaE/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D1245%26coordinates%3D0%252C1%252C0%252C1%26height%3D700%22%2C%20%22750×1000%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE5MC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY3ODk1Mzg2Mn0.XH1tiHwvbrcCCpM1hzB8pgV09kIp7uYFeObPwQDsHaE/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D750%26coordinates%3D233%252C0%252C233%252C0%26height%3D1000%22%2C%20%22300x%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE5MC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY3ODk1Mzg2Mn0.XH1tiHwvbrcCCpM1hzB8pgV09kIp7uYFeObPwQDsHaE/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D300%22%2C%20%221200×600%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE5MC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY3ODk1Mzg2Mn0.XH1tiHwvbrcCCpM1hzB8pgV09kIp7uYFeObPwQDsHaE/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D1200%26coordinates%3D0%252C26%252C0%252C27%26height%3D600%22%7D%2C%20%22manual_image_crops%22%3A%20%7B%223×1%22%3A%20%7B%22width%22%3A%20810%2C%20%22top%22%3A%2094%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20270%2C%20%22left%22%3A%200%2C%20%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%221200×400%22%2C%20%22600×200%22%5D%7D%2C%20%223×2%22%3A%20%7B%22width%22%3A%20687%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20458%2C%20%22left%22%3A%2061%2C%20%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%221200×800%22%2C%20%22600×400%22%5D%7D%2C%20%221×1%22%3A%20%7B%22width%22%3A%20458%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20458%2C%20%22left%22%3A%20176%2C%20%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%22600×600%22%2C%20%22300×300%22%5D%7D%2C%20%223×4%22%3A%20%7B%22width%22%3A%20344%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20458%2C%20%22left%22%3A%20233%2C%20%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%221500×2000%22%2C%20%22750×1000%22%5D%7D%2C%20%2216×9%22%3A%20%7B%22width%22%3A%20810%2C%20%22top%22%3A%201%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20456%2C%20%22left%22%3A%200%2C%20%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%221245×700%22%5D%7D%2C%20%229×16%22%3A%20%7B%22width%22%3A%20258%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20458%2C%20%22left%22%3A%20276%2C%20%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%22700×1245%22%5D%7D%2C%20%224×3%22%3A%20%7B%22width%22%3A%20611%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20458%2C%20%22left%22%3A%2099%2C%20%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%222000×1500%22%2C%20%221000×750%22%5D%7D%2C%20%22600×300%22%3A%20%7B%22width%22%3A%20810%2C%20%22top%22%3A%2026%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20405%2C%20%22left%22%3A%200%2C%20%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%22600×300%22%5D%7D%2C%20%222×1%22%3A%20%7B%22width%22%3A%20810%2C%20%22top%22%3A%2026%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20405%2C%20%22left%22%3A%200%2C%20%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%221200×600%22%2C%20%22600×300%22%5D%7D%7D%7D” dam=”0″ site_id=20074994 pin_description=”” original_size=”810×458″ expand=1]
रिपोर्ट के अनुसार, आईआईटी कानपुर के गणित और सांख्यिकी विभाग के तीन शोधकर्ताओं- सुभ्र शंकर धर, सबरा प्रसाद राजेशभाई और शलभ द्वारा किया गया था। अध्ययन से पता चलता है कि चौथी लहर की गंभीरता कोरोना वायरस के नए संभावित स्वरूप और देश भर में टीकाकरण की स्थिति पर निर्भर करेगी।
शोधकर्ताओं ने बताया कि, “आंकड़े दिखाते हैं कि भारत में संक्रमण की चौथी लहर प्रारंभिक आंकड़े उपलब्धता तिथि के 936 दिन बाद आएगी, जो कि 30 जनवरी 2020 है। इसलिए चौथी लहर 22 जून 2022 से शुरू होगी, 23 अगस्त 2022 तक चरम पर पहुंचेगी और फिर 24 अक्टूबर 2022 तक समाप्त हो जाएगी।”
महामारी अभी खत्म नहीं हुई है: विश्व स्वास्थ्य संगठन
[rebelmouse-image 29447187 is_animated_gif=false crop_info=”%7B%22image%22%3A%20%22https%3A//assets.rbl.ms/29447187/origin.jpg%22%2C%20%22thumbnails%22%3A%20%7B%22origin%22%3A%20%22https%3A//assets.rbl.ms/29447187/origin.jpg%22%2C%20%222000×1500%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE4Ny9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTcwNDk4NDcxNn0.dYHoKcbpiThUULofS2jtq-8A2Wuu6WZUBdZiDUmZWzY/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D2000%26coordinates%3D2%252C0%252C0%252C0%26height%3D1500%22%2C%20%22600×200%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE4Ny9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTcwNDk4NDcxNn0.dYHoKcbpiThUULofS2jtq-8A2Wuu6WZUBdZiDUmZWzY/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D600%26coordinates%3D0%252C0%252C0%252C258%26height%3D200%22%2C%20%2235×35%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE4Ny9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTcwNDk4NDcxNn0.dYHoKcbpiThUULofS2jtq-8A2Wuu6WZUBdZiDUmZWzY/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D35%26height%3D35%22%2C%20%22600×600%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE4Ny9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTcwNDk4NDcxNn0.dYHoKcbpiThUULofS2jtq-8A2Wuu6WZUBdZiDUmZWzY/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D600%26coordinates%3D156%252C0%252C0%252C0%26height%3D600%22%2C%20%22980x%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE4Ny9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTcwNDk4NDcxNn0.dYHoKcbpiThUULofS2jtq-8A2Wuu6WZUBdZiDUmZWzY/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D980%22%2C%20%22700×1245%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE4Ny9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTcwNDk4NDcxNn0.dYHoKcbpiThUULofS2jtq-8A2Wuu6WZUBdZiDUmZWzY/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D700%26coordinates%3D360%252C0%252C0%252C0%26height%3D1245%22%2C%20%221000×750%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE4Ny9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTcwNDk4NDcxNn0.dYHoKcbpiThUULofS2jtq-8A2Wuu6WZUBdZiDUmZWzY/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D1000%26coordinates%3D2%252C0%252C0%252C0%26height%3D750%22%2C%20%221500×2000%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE4Ny9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTcwNDk4NDcxNn0.dYHoKcbpiThUULofS2jtq-8A2Wuu6WZUBdZiDUmZWzY/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D1500%26coordinates%3D272%252C0%252C0%252C0%26height%3D2000%22%2C%20%22600x%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE4Ny9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTcwNDk4NDcxNn0.dYHoKcbpiThUULofS2jtq-8A2Wuu6WZUBdZiDUmZWzY/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D600%22%2C%20%221200×400%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE4Ny9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTcwNDk4NDcxNn0.dYHoKcbpiThUULofS2jtq-8A2Wuu6WZUBdZiDUmZWzY/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D1200%26coordinates%3D0%252C0%252C0%252C258%26height%3D400%22%2C%20%22600×400%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE4Ny9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTcwNDk4NDcxNn0.dYHoKcbpiThUULofS2jtq-8A2Wuu6WZUBdZiDUmZWzY/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D600%26coordinates%3D0%252C0%252C0%252C50%26height%3D400%22%2C%20%221200×800%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE4Ny9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTcwNDk4NDcxNn0.dYHoKcbpiThUULofS2jtq-8A2Wuu6WZUBdZiDUmZWzY/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D1200%26coordinates%3D0%252C0%252C0%252C50%26height%3D800%22%2C%20%22600×300%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE4Ny9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTcwNDk4NDcxNn0.dYHoKcbpiThUULofS2jtq-8A2Wuu6WZUBdZiDUmZWzY/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D600%26coordinates%3D0%252C0%252C0%252C154%26height%3D300%22%2C%20%22210x%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE4Ny9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTcwNDk4NDcxNn0.dYHoKcbpiThUULofS2jtq-8A2Wuu6WZUBdZiDUmZWzY/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D210%22%2C%20%22300×300%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE4Ny9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTcwNDk4NDcxNn0.dYHoKcbpiThUULofS2jtq-8A2Wuu6WZUBdZiDUmZWzY/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D300%26coordinates%3D156%252C0%252C0%252C0%26height%3D300%22%2C%20%221245×700%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE4Ny9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTcwNDk4NDcxNn0.dYHoKcbpiThUULofS2jtq-8A2Wuu6WZUBdZiDUmZWzY/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D1245%26coordinates%3D0%252C0%252C0%252C116%26height%3D700%22%2C%20%22750×1000%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE4Ny9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTcwNDk4NDcxNn0.dYHoKcbpiThUULofS2jtq-8A2Wuu6WZUBdZiDUmZWzY/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D750%26coordinates%3D272%252C0%252C0%252C0%26height%3D1000%22%2C%20%22300x%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE4Ny9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTcwNDk4NDcxNn0.dYHoKcbpiThUULofS2jtq-8A2Wuu6WZUBdZiDUmZWzY/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D300%22%2C%20%221200×600%22%3A%20%22https%3A//www.knocksense.com/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yOTQ0NzE4Ny9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTcwNDk4NDcxNn0.dYHoKcbpiThUULofS2jtq-8A2Wuu6WZUBdZiDUmZWzY/image.jpg%3Fwidth%3D1200%26coordinates%3D0%252C0%252C0%252C154%26height%3D600%22%7D%2C%20%22manual_image_crops%22%3A%20%7B%223×1%22%3A%20%7B%22width%22%3A%20620%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20206%2C%20%22left%22%3A%200%2C%20%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%221200×400%22%2C%20%22600×200%22%5D%7D%2C%20%223×2%22%3A%20%7B%22width%22%3A%20620%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20414%2C%20%22left%22%3A%200%2C%20%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%221200×800%22%2C%20%22600×400%22%5D%7D%2C%20%221×1%22%3A%20%7B%22width%22%3A%20464%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20464%2C%20%22left%22%3A%20156%2C%20%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%22600×600%22%2C%20%22300×300%22%5D%7D%2C%20%223×4%22%3A%20%7B%22width%22%3A%20348%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20464%2C%20%22left%22%3A%20272%2C%20%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%221500×2000%22%2C%20%22750×1000%22%5D%7D%2C%20%2216×9%22%3A%20%7B%22width%22%3A%20620%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20348%2C%20%22left%22%3A%200%2C%20%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%221245×700%22%5D%7D%2C%20%229×16%22%3A%20%7B%22width%22%3A%20260%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20464%2C%20%22left%22%3A%20360%2C%20%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%22700×1245%22%5D%7D%2C%20%224×3%22%3A%20%7B%22width%22%3A%20618%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20464%2C%20%22left%22%3A%202%2C%20%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%222000×1500%22%2C%20%221000×750%22%5D%7D%2C%20%22600×300%22%3A%20%7B%22width%22%3A%20620%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20310%2C%20%22left%22%3A%200%2C%20%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%22600×300%22%5D%7D%2C%20%222×1%22%3A%20%7B%22width%22%3A%20620%2C%20%22top%22%3A%200%2C%20%22height%22%3A%20310%2C%20%22left%22%3A%200%2C%20%22sizes%22%3A%20%5B%221200×600%22%2C%20%22600×300%22%5D%7D%7D%7D” dam=”1″ site_id=20074994 pin_description=”” original_size=”620×464″ expand=1]
डब्ल्यूएचओ के महामारीविद (epidemiologist) और कोविड -19 पर टेक्निकल लीड (technical lead) डॉ मारिया वान केरखोव ने भी चेतावनी दी है कि कोविड -19 का अगला वैरिएंट अधिक संक्रामक होगा, और शायद, अपने पूर्ववर्तियों (predecessors) की तुलना में अधिक घातक होगा क्योंकि इसे वर्तमान में फैलने वाले वैरिएंट से आगे निकलना होगा। डॉ. केरखोव ने इस बात पर ज़ोर दिया है कि महामारी अभी खत्म नहीं हुई है और भविष्य के वैरिएंट, किसी तरह से ओमिक्रॉन की तुलना में अधिक खतरनाक होंगे।
कई देश पहले ही तीसरी लहर का सामना चुके हैं और कुछ महामारी की चौथी और अधिक लहरों का सामना करना शुरू कर दिया है। ज़िम्बाब्वे के डेटा के आधार पर गाऊसी वितरण के मिश्रण (Gaussian distribution) की अवधारणा का उपयोग करके भारत में कोविड -19 की तीसरी लहर की भविष्यवाणी की गई थी। तीसरी लहर के लिए पूर्वानुमान लगभग सही था और अध्ययन से प्रेरित होकर शोधकर्ताओं ने भारत में चौथी लहर के पूर्वानुमान की जांच की है।
