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Scientists at IIT Kanpur launch SIR- COVID-19 Prediction Model for updated daily forecasts in UP

The website can predict the spike and decline in COVID cases, in 15 UP districts.

Amid the erratic trends of the second wave of the coronavirus, experts at IIT Kanpur have launched a website for updated daily forecasts. Named as SIR - Covid-19 Prediction Model, this technology is equipped to estimate the infection peak. Similarly, it can also assist in predicting the decline of the infection, based on the data records of the outbreaks in the past.


Website projects current COVID status to infection forecasts

Professor Rajesh Ranjan and Mahendra Verma along with their team at the Indian Institute of Technology in Kanpur, have engineered a digital marvel to relay the status of COVID-19 impact to the general public. This team of scientists have compiled district-wise reports of all states of the nation to estimate infection rise or fall and the dynamic status of spread with the help of graphs. As yet, the model is functional in 15 UP districts- Lucknow, Kanpur, Varanasi and Bareilly among others.

Forecasts until July are listed on this website which will help the people to take necessary precautions to avoid a scaling rise of infection. The system findings and Professor Verma's statement, highlight that the peak of the second wave of coronavirus has passed in UP. Other states in India, except for West Bengal, Odisha and all other northeastern states, who are yet to face the second swell, have also crossed their respective peak according to studies.

As per their findings, the test positivity rate (TPR) in the country, i.e., the number of positive cases per 100 tests fell from 23% to 12% back on May 8. Similarly, the death rate presently stands at 1.7% and forecasts assure that the ratio will soon be reduced further.

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